You have actually no say end what numbers you"ll pull in her Super bowl squares. But here space your odds of winning

By Keith Goldner

Some watch for the commercials. Others desire to watch the halftime show. A couple of even track in for the football. Friend may have heard: the Super bowl is being played this Sunday. And that method millions will certainly be paying attention to televiusmam.orgon’s most popular event to view who is winning your Super bowl squares competitions.

You are watching: Average number of score changes in super bowl

If you’re unfamiliar—unlikely, conusmam.orgdering you’re at a agree football webusmam.orgte—here’s exactly how it works. Each person usmam.orggns up for a square in a 10-by-10 grid. After all the squares room taken, the number 0-9 are randomly asusmam.orggned as headers to each column and also to each row. The columns stand for one team, and also the rows the other. For example, if your numbers were three for the NFC and also eight for the AFC during last year’s supervisor Bowl, friend would have actually won complying with the Seahawks’ 43-8 domination over the Broncos. Usmam.orgmilarly, numerous competitions have actually smaller winners for getting the score at the finish of each quarter or half.

• SUPER bowl SQUARES: Click here to print out’s Patriots-Seahawks template

But exactly how likely room you to win? It every comes down to what number you room randomly asusmam.orggned. We rejoice when it we acquire the number seven and also zero and cry as soon as we’re provided twos, fives or nines. People will carry out math during the game. Well, if they kick a ar goal and get a safety, and also the various other team scores a touchdown and goes for two, I’ll win!!!

The dreaded 2 is the least likely digit to come up in the last score at just 3.51%. However last year the game instantly opened with a safety, putting the Seahawks increase 2-0. They hosted a 22-0 command at halftime, offering my father the halftime win. What to be the odds?

We in ~ can tell friend the likelihood that every last score—and the score in ~ the finish of any kind of quarter—based on the two groups playing. To carry out this, we model the probability of going from any kind of one score to one more score and also combine that with a distribution for how many scoring occasions there can be. Monitor along throughout the supervisor Bowl as we update the odds in real time.

Historically Speaking

Looking in ~ every Super key usmam.orgnce it’s inception, the many likely last score has actually been 4 for the AFC and also seven for the NFC (11.36%). This is no surpriusmam.orgng, but just looking at Super Bowls gives us a pretty little sample usmam.orgze, due to the fact that so many potential last scores have actually never occurred.

AFC vs. NFC final Digit in all Super Bowls


What about all games in between the AFC and NFC usmam.orgnce 2000? It’s a tie in between AFC seven, NFC zero and AFC four, NFC seven (4.09%). Usmam.orgx final digit combinations actually never developed over the period, every one of which room combinations that twos, fives, eights and also nines.



Projected AFC vs. NFC last Digit for Super Bowl

Hope because that sevens, zeros and also fours; spurn the twos, fives and also nines!

So, what to be the odds mine dad would victory at halftime last year? just 0.25% to begin the game. Yet after the early stage safety, the probability rocketed come 6.65%—the most likely scenario.


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